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| EFFECT OF RECESSION ON INDIAN ECONOMY |
| 04.06.09 (3:22 am) [edit] |
| Though no one likes or wants a recession, almost everyone appears (looking at WEF, Davos) reconciled to one in the United States. Meanwhile, politicians continue to downplay any fears of global repercussions, citing decoupling of the United States and other economies as a buffering factor. But what is the reality for countries like India? It would be naïve to imagine that a recession in the United States would have no impact on India. The United States accounts for one-fourth of the world GDP and any significant slowdown is bound to have reverberations elsewhere. On the other hand, interdependencies between the US economy and emerging economies like India and China has reduced considerably over the last two decades. Thus, the effect may not be as drastic as would have been the case in the 1980s. Even so, fears of a US recession led to panic in the Indian stock market. January 21 and 22 saw a meltdown with a mind-boggling US$450 billion in market capitalization being vaporized. An unprecedented interest cut by the Fed led to a bounce-back on January 23 and at the time of this writing, the benchmark index (BSE) has gained 2.5%, almost in line with Hang-Seng, Nikkei, and Kospi. History might hold a clue here. The last time the bubble burst (2001-2002), the DJIA went down by 23%, while the Indian Index fell by 15%. Much has happened between then and now. The Indian economy has shown a robust and consistent growth trajectory and the projection for 2008 is 9%. Indian exports to the United States account for just over 3% of GDP. India has a healthy trade surplus with the United States. In other words, the effects of this recession on India may be quite distinct from those of the past. Here are some areas worth following: 1. A credit crisis in the United States might lead to a restructuring of asset allocation at pension funds. It has been suggested that CalPERS is likely to shift an additional US$24 billion to its international portfolio. A large portion of this is likely to flow into India and China. If other funds follow suit, a cascading effect can be expected. Along with the already significant dollar funds available, the additional funds could be deployed to create infrastructure--roads, airports, and seaports--and be ready for a rapid takeoff when normalcy is restored. 2. In terms of specific sectors, the IT Enabled Services sector may be hit since a majority of Indian IT firms derive 75% or more of their revenues from the United States--a classic case of having put all eggs in one basket. If Fortune 500 companies slash their IT budgets, Indian firms could be adversely affected. Instead of looking at the scenario as a threat, the sector would do well to focus on product innovation (as opposed to merely providing services). If this is done, India can emerge as a major player in the IT products category as well. 3. The manufacturing sector has to ramp up scale economies, and improve productivity and operational efficiency, thus lowering prices, if it wishes to offset the loss of revenue from a possible US recession. The demand for appliances, consumer electronics, apparel, and a host of products is huge and can be exploited to advantage by adopting appropriate pricing strategies. Although unlikely, a prolonged recession might see the emergence of new regional groupings--India, China, and Korea? 4. The tourism sector could be affected. Now is the time to aggressively promote health tourism. Given the availability of talented professionals, and with a distinct cost advantage, India can be the destination of choice for health tourism. 5. A recession in the United States may see the loss of some jobs in India. The concept of Social Security, that has been absent until now, may gain momentum. 6. The Indian Rupee has appreciated in relation to the US dollar. Exporters are pushing for government intervention and rate cuts. What is conveniently forgotten in this debate is that a stronger Rupee would reduce the import bill, and narrow the overall trade deficit. The Indian central bank (Reserve Bank of India) can intervene anytime and cut interest rates, increasing liquidity in the economy, and catalyzing domestic demand. A strong domestic demand would also help in competing globally when the recession is over. In summary, at the macro-level, a recession in the US may bring down GDP growth, but not by much. At the micro-level, specific sectors could be affected. Innovation now may prove to be the engine for growth when the next boom occurs. For US firms, who have long looked at China as a better investment destination, this may be a good time to look at India as well. After all, 350 million people with purchasing power cannot be ignored. |
| survival of the fittest becomes false |
| 04.01.09 (11:39 pm) [edit] |
| There have been a lot of people talking about the “end of times" throughout the entirety of our history. Madmen, prophets, or just people who ate too many mushrooms. Most of the time these prophecies mean very little and the date mentioned passes with nothing more than a slight chill in the air. 2012 is not one of these random dates. In fact, 2012 is the only date that has several prophecies surrounding it. This is important, there is very little chance that so many cultures, from different areas of the world and different times in history, would name the same date for “cataclysmic change". It is also important to note that these same prophecies have been accurate for other events as well. First of all, the most talked about prophecy is the Mayan Calendar. The Mayans were master mathematicians and absolutely obsessed with Calendars. Much like ours, the Mayans had a 365 (and one quarter) day calendar for keeping track of seasons and harvests. The really interesting part is that they also had a calendar for consciousness. They had developed a way to outline what humanity would do and when humanity would do it. This Calendar has been accurate for everything from wars to the rise of new religions. It also covers the entire evolution of the universe…and it ends on December 21, 2012 . Research Ian Lungold on Google Video for more information. Secondly, December 21, 2012 also happens to be the exact date that our species will get to see what nobody else has seen in almost 26000 years. Our sun, our earth, and the exact center of the Milky Way galaxy will be perfectly in line. Thirdly, after calculating a mathematical algorithm from the I Ching (book of change) a wave form was developed. Very much like the Mayan Calendar this wave form indicates the patterns of human behavior. When the wave falls there is a major war, when it rises a new culture is born. This wave form also mysteriously ends on December 21, 2012 . Research Timewave Zero by Terrence McKenna. Fourthly, in 1139 AD Saint Malachy, on his way to Rome , went into a ecstatic trance. In this trance he listed 112 popes that would reign before the end of the church and the end of times. Pope Benedict XVI is number 111. This list has been accurate. Fifth, recent science and the prophecies of Nostradamus agree that a Polar Shift will occur between 2007 – 2012. This is happening as we speak. So, with all of these prophecies pointing to the same year, what do you do about it? Do you keep working? Do you build a bomb shelter? Stock up on food? There are 2 schools of thought on 2012 and what it means to humanity. On the one side of the coin you have the traditional school of thought that the universe is a giant random mess that should be feared. On the other side you have the school of thought that has realized that for so many prophecies to point to the same date (from different times and areas of the world) there MUST be some plan. There must be more purpose to this existence than simply working, paying taxes, and eating junk food. And there is. The one truly amazing event that is taking place right now is in you. In your mind you have become more and more aware of yourself. You are exploring thoughts you’ve never explored before, understanding is seeming easier, time means less to you on a daily basis, and you’re becoming aware of exactly how endless your imagination can be. You, for lack of a better term, are evolving. The current state of the world is dependant on you not realizing this. Government doesn’t want you to evolve because they are afraid you won’t need them if you do…and you won’t. Mindless entertainment and constant fear mongering are the only tools that the system has to distract you from what is happening within your own mind. The problem is that those tools are not working, people ARE waking up and realizing their own potential. Unfortunately this means that the system will just try harder. This is the real journey to 2012. I promised you I would tell you what to do and so I will. Find out everything about yourself that you were never taught. Don’t fall in with a religion but instead pay attention to the words of the people that those religions worship. Remember that Christ, Buddha, Mohammed, and every other great “teacher" were simply trying to point out our true potential. They were just people like you and I. They were trying to tell us what we are about to truly discover in 2012. They were trying to show us our own infinite and divine nature |